Chinese or Russian Nuclear Missiles Based in Iran
Bush’s biggest surprise yet may be just around the corner. Like the other “challenges” it will largely be a disaster of his own making: both highly predictable, but nevertheless devastating. Bush’s fatally flawed Middle East policies may drive either Russia or China to base nuclear missiles in Iran. China might do it, in order to maintain needed access to natural gas and petroleum reserves. The US rejection of China’s $18.5 billion bid to purchase a US petroleum company UNOCAL in 2005 has not been forgotten. Rather, it serves as a reminder that access to reserves may have moved beyond the reach of buyers, to occupiers. China could also benefit from offering a “strategic nuclear umbrella” in the region as a checkmate to the US’s forward Pacific naval deployment and maneuvers, endless administration rhetoric about Taiwan, and pressure for not doing enough to reign in North Korea. Chinese missiles in Iran would be a not-too-subtle rebuke to the US, simultaneously reaffirming sovereignty and the legitimacy of Chinese national interests without creating a direct threat to the US homeland.
Russia, for its part, might wish to create a “nuclear stockade” around territory it does not wish to see turned into another Iraq or radioactive slag heap. By basing short and intermediate range nuclear missiles in Iran, Russia could send the unmistakable message that it is unwilling to see yet another seething mass of violence and destruction created in its back yard by the US. It would create a standoff with Israel’s nuclear missiles, many of which are believed to target Russian cities. Russia’s key interests in deployment are the continued long term access to the Iranian market for engineering services and large scale projects as well as the protection of military exports. A Russian “sphere of influence” in a willing Iran would counter and balance the expected permanent US military presence in Iraq.
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Will A Nuclear Iran be the Bush Administration’s Final Surprise?
Grant F. Smith summarizes the possibility of Iran turning the tables on the Bush administration on WAMU’s radio program, the Kojo Nnamdi Show.
“Why wouldn’t Russia consider basing missiles in Iran by invitation to deter rivals or prevent Iran from becoming a chaotic cauldron of death and destruction like Iraq? Or a nuclear slag-heap like some neocons are predicting?” (4/10/06)
Listen to the segment (mp3)
Read more IRmep analysis on Iran